What Will Happen to Cache County Home Prices?

What will happen to home prices in Cache County in the near future? We don't really know. But by looking at past statistics and results we can make some educated guesses.

The biggest factor determining future prices is the amount of real estate inventory. The more houses there are for sale, the more home prices will come down. Another factor that will determine future prices is the number of foreclosures that will be hitting the market. Foreclosures not only add to the total inventory, but they also generally have lower sales prices, lowering overall values. Here are current real estate inventory levels compared with previous years.

If there had never been a boom in home prices, where would prices now be if home prices appreciated at a normal gradual pace? Assuming that Cache County home prices were "normal" from 1997-2001, the green and red lines show what the median and average home price would be if home prices went up at exactly 3% each year. At this pace the median price would be $150,048.92 right now. Last months median sales price was $155,580. The average sales price at this rate would $161,919. Septembers average sold price was $161,482.

Under this model, Logan Real Estate prices are just slightly above what they would be at gradual appreciation. However, this doesn't mean that prices will stop dropping. Real estate values are determined by economic conditions in the area. If the economy worsens, prices could drop well below the "normal" values. With 880 current homes for sale in Logan, we will likely see prices drop well below the normal lines. There are more than 13 months of real estate inventory at Septembers home sales pace.