Logan July Home Sales Were Really Low

From watching the statistics and market trends over recent months, I knew that July home sales were going to low. But, I didn't think they would be this bad. I look outside, and the 90 degree temperatures sure don't indicate that its the middle of winter. My unofficial statistics show that last month was the worst July for home sales in Logan Utah since the MLS started keeping stats in 1997.

July Cache County Home Sales were down 47% compared with July of 2009, and were less than half of last months home sales. Clearly, the tax credit had a drastic impact on the movement of home sales. Historically, July is one of the biggest months for Logan UT Real Estate.

The sad news is that it doesn't look like this is just a one month statistical blip either. So far, August sales don't look like they will be much improved. When I did my statistics at the beginning of last month there were 98 under contract homes in Cache County. Right now there are just 98.

The number of Utah Homes for Sale is rising. Cache County now has 906 residential homes for sale, which is an all time high. At July's home sales pace this represents more than 17 months of active inventory. If you are one of the 900 Cache Valley home sellers, and need to sell, now is the time to do something drastic. It looks like it is going to be a long winter for Real Estate in Cache Valley.

One really peculiar stat that stuck out to me was the average days on market. This may have just been an anomaly from a limited sample size, but the average days on market during July was down. This doesn't indicate that homes are selling faster, it just shows that many of the recently listed homes priced their homes right from the beginning and were able to sell.

Cache County Home Sales Up, Condo Sales Way up for First Half of 2010

It's hard to believe, but 2010 is nearly half way over. Real Estate sales in Cache County are up for the first half of the year compared with the first half of last year, and Cache Valley Condo sales are more than double what they were last year.

For single family houses in Cache County Utah, sales were up 8.76% from a year ago. There wasn't really a price disparity between the percentage change of more expensive homes and less expensive homes. Cache Valley homes priced below $200,000 saw a sales increase of 8.76%, and Home's priced above $200,000 saw an increase by 8.77%. Last year, homes priced above $200,000 saw a 41% decline compared with the first half of 2008.

Sales of Condos in Logan Utah were more than double last years numbers. 92 Condos and Townhouses sold this year compared with just 43 at this time last year. The average price of condos also declined, the average sold price this year of $124,100 is 10.66% less than last year. The median sales price of condos was just down by 5.14%.

While the quantity of homes that sold was up, prices were way down. The median price of homes sold in Cache County through the first half of the year was $156,000, down 8.18% compared with last years median price of $169,900. The average sold price was down slightly more at 8.54%.

Most of the individual cities in Cache County saw improvements in home sales, with the exception of Providence, and Hyde Park Real Estate. Logan Real Estate sales were up 18.14%, Smithfield Real Estate Sales Rose 26.79%, Hyrum Real Estate Sales increased 24.5%, Nibley Real Estate sales improved 20.6%, Wellsville Real Estate saw 5 more home sales, North Logan Real Estate sales increased 26.7%, and the rural Cache County communities saw home sales improvements of 16.33%.

Short Sale Numbers Slightly Up in Logan

While Total Real Estate inventory in Cache County is up, the number of short sales is also up, but still significantly less than a couple months ago. The number of Cache County Short Sale listings rose from 29 to 33, an increase of less than half a percent.

Record HIGH number of Home Listings in Cache County

Right now there are 854 residential homes for sale in Cache County Utah. By my records, this is the highest amount of Real Estate Inventory Cache County has ever had. The previous high I ever noted was 850 in July of last year.

So what does this mean?

In basic economics, it simply means that there is more supply than demand. When this happens, prices will drop. What it means overall is that it is not a good time to try and sell Logan Utah Real Estate. There will still be hundreds of Cache County homes that can and will sell, but the homes that do sell will be those that offer the best value. If you NEED to sell your home you want to make sure you have it priced low, and have it clean and presentable. Showings will be down, so those showings you get, you need to make count. If you don't NEED to sell, you might be better off by just taking your home off the market and learn to enjoy where you now live.

If you need to relocate, it's better to drastically drop the price on your house now rather than to leave it vacant for months or years. Doing so will reduce the overall loss. The high inventory, especially among the high end homes also means that many sellers may want to consider lease options or renting their homes out if the losses that need to be taken will be too much.

There are other variables, other factors of course, and with real estate what really matters is the amount of competition in a particular price range or area. Next month I plan to do my break down by price ranges, and by home sizes for the amount of real estate inventory. That will give us a better idea of which type of Cache Valley homes for sale have most saturated the market.

Short Sales in Logan Down 33%

So I just ran the numbers to see the latest trends for Logan Utah Short Sales, and unless the MLS changed the way short sales are calculated, short sale numbers in Logan are way down. Of the 812 homes listed for sale right now, just 29 Logan Real Estate listings are short sales. This is nearly 33% less than last time I ran the numbers a month in a half ago.

Just 3.59% of the homes listed for sale in Cache County are listed as Short Sales. This is substantially down from the stable trend over the past six months.

Logan Real Estate Inventory Back UP

After the huge decline in Real Estate inventory at the beginning of the month, when home buyers rushed to get properties under contract at the end of April, Logan Utah Real Estate inventory is up again.

There are currently 812 homes for Sale in Cache County. This is 32 more homes on the market than two weeks ago. The number of home sales in may does look like it will be pretty strong. During May thus far, there has already been more than 65 residential homes sold.

Number of Homes for Sale in Logan Rising Quickly

I just ran a quick check of the number of homes for sale in Cache County, and was astonished to see that in just a week, the number of Logan Real Estate inventory had risen by nearly 5%. Exactly one week ago, Cache County had 687 residential real estate listings. Right now there are 720.

Last year we didn't hit inventory levels this high until the March when the Spring listing season typically hits. March and April are typically big months for listing homes for sale.

Some of the increase in inventory can be attributed to the $6,500 move up tax credit. People want to sell by April so they can get the government money when they buy their new homes. However, this sharp spike in the number of homes for sale in Logan is alarming. Home prices will continue to decline as long as there are more homes on the market than there are buyers. At last years pace of home sales, we have more than 9 months of Cache County real estate inventory right now.

Short Sales in Logan Utah

There are currently 12 Short Sales in Logan Utah, and 35 in the smaller Cache Valley cities. This is up slightly from last month. Currently, 6.37 percent of all active listings are Cache Valley Short Sales.

Five of the current Logan Short Sales have already been approved by the bank. This means the purchase transaction shouldn't be much different than an ordinary transaction from the buyers standpoint. The other 62 Cache County properties listed as short sales still require bank approval before closing can actually take place. This means the real estate transaction could take many months, or may not actually even happen at all if the bank isn't willing to allow the short sale.

Here are the five Cache Valley Short Sales that have supposedly already had bank approval. Two of these are huge houses in the North Logan/Hyde Park area.

Click this link to view all Cache Valley Short Sales for Sale.

Cache Valley has more than 40 Short Sale Homes

The number of homes requiring short sales continues to rise for Cache Valley. There are now more than 40 listed properties that require bank approval. Prices are dropping on these properties, especially the more expensive ones. Currently the most expensive Short Sale Home in Cache Valley is priced at $475,000. A few months back there were a half dozen homes more than half a million.

Overall the number of real estate listings in Cache Valley is dropping. An increased number of short sales tells us that prices are declining and more borrowers are seeing hard times.

September Home Sales and Prices Down for Logan

After the best month in the year, Cache County home sales were down a little in September. Just 88 homes have been reported sold compared with 116 in August, and down from 100 of September of last year.



The average price of homes sold during September was also much lower than it has been in recent times. The median sold price of Cache County Homes was just $154,000. This means that half of the 88 properties sold were less than $154,000.

Cache County currently has 755 homes for sale. This includes homes for sale in Logan Utah, North Logan Homes, Providence Utah Homes, Smithfield Utah Homes, Hyrum Utah Homes, Nibley Utah Homes, and the more rural areas of Cache Valley. At Septembers Sales pace, Cache County has nearly 9 months of active inventory.

Winter is approaching and home sales are typically much slower during the colder months of the year. October and November should still be pretty good months for home sales with the expiration of the first time buyer tax credit.

Logan Duplexes Didn't Sell During the First Half of The Year

Like most Cache County Real Estate, multi family property sales are down this year. 

In fact, duplex sales during the first six months of 2009 are almost non existent despite the fact that rents are up. Only 6 duplexes and 5 fourplexes sold between January and June. Duplex sales were down by nearly 79% compared to last year. 

There are currently 14 duplexes, 7 triplexes, and 28 fourplexes for sale in Cache Valley. 

Active Listings in Logan Keep Rising

July and August are typically the best selling months for real estate in Logan. While these are the top selling months, June usually is one of the top months for getting homes under contract. There is a good number of homes for sale that are going under contract, but the number of active listings in Cache County continue to rise. If, this continues through July, we may be in for a market slowdown and softening for the remainder of the year.

Currently Cache County has 729 homes listed. Last year the number of listings peaked at 634. This includes 645 single family homes for sale and 75 condos listed on the mls. This is a lot of inventory and I'm just waiting for that number to peak but it keeps going up. Here is a break down of the number of active listings by major city:

Homes for Sale in Logan: 255
Homes for Sale in Providence: 75
Homes for Sale in Nibley: 74
Homes for Sale in North Logan: 55
Homes for Sale in Hyrum: 50
Homes for Sale in Hyde Park: 50
Homes for Sale in Smithfield: 47
Homes for Sale in Wellsville: 27

Logan Real Estate - What is the market future?

Over the past year Real Estate in Cache Valley has reached all time high sales and double digit appreciation. The economy has been healthy, and unemployment is among the lowest in the state. Homes for sale in the lower price ranges have experienced sellers market this spring. If a home is clean, priced right, it sells in a matter of days. The question is, how long will this robust real estate growth continue?

Here are a couple factors to consider:

The average price of homes on the market is currently approximately $223,000! Last year the average price of a home sold was close to $177,000. 65% of Single family homes on the market are priced above $200,000.

There is more available homes for sale on the market now than there has been in months. There is more inventory, but not a lot more to make that much of a difference. Traditionally, July and August are the biggest home selling months in Cache Valley, so inventory amounts should remain pretty stable and we shouldn't expect much of a shift in the market conditions.

Interest rates are substantially up. Conventianal 30 year fixed mortgages are nearing 7%. Mortgage rates have increased for six straight weeks. These rates are still historically low. They will deter some potential buyers, but as a whole will not create a major impact.

My prediction is that homes will continue to appreciate at a healthy 5-10% for the next few months. We probably won't see anymore double digit appreciation, and we also won't see a market meltdown or depreciation. There is an ample supply of expensive homes, but less than desired affordable housing.

I also think that rental rates will increase substantially in the next little while... The average Cache Valley resident will not be able to buy, and when it comes to out of pocket monthly cash, renting will be cheaper. What do you think will happen in our market?

Real Estate Logan Utah
Alan Barker - Logan Realtor
Utah Homes for Sale