Cache County Real Estate Inventory At 5 Year Low

If you've been looking for real estate in Cache County, and haven't been able to find that perfect home, you're not alone. Real estate inventory in the Logan area is the lowest it's been since January of 2008. December home sales were up nearly 7% compared with a year ago.

Right now there are 502 residential homes for sale in Cache County, Utah. During August of 2010, there were 906 residential homes listed on the MLS. The current inventory is down 45% from the peak.



What does this mean? It means the real estate market is shifting towards that of a "sellers market". When there is limited inventory (right now), multiple buyers compete for the same properties -- giving the negotiating advantage to sellers. During sellers markets, home prices rise.

If you're looking to buy, don't panic, but get serious. Home prices always lag behind sales, and most people don't want to go house hunting during bitter cold Cache Valley winters. Right now real estate prices are still very low. In fact, during December the median home sales price of $148,500, was one of the lowest we've seen in the last five years.

The other good thing is that mortgage interest rates are still at all time low levels. Thirty year fixed mortgage rates can be obtained for less than 3.5%, and 15 year fixed mortgages are available for less than 3%.

It's a great time to buy. View all active real estate listings online at UtahCornerstone.com

Logan Real Estate Inventory at Lowest Level Since April of 2008

The number of homes for sale in Logan Utah is at its lowest level since April of 2008. That was

at the height of the real estate boom for Cache Valley when homes prices were rapidly appreciating. It is typical for real estate inventory to decline during the fall and winter months, but inventory hasn't been this low in years. This is great news for people who currently own Logan Real Estate and is a sign that home values should start stabilizing.

As you can see in the chart below, while inventory at the front of the year was at its highest January level ever, it is now well below November levels at any time during the last four years.

While the reduced real estate inventory in Cache County is good news for homeowners, overall home sales also continue improving.

During October, 78 residential homes sold. This is a 42% increase from October of a year ago. This is the fifth straight month where we have seen a year over year increase in home sales. It actually appears that annual home sales will actually be better this year than they were last year.

If these signs towards recovery continue, the current low home prices combined with the all time low mortgage interest rates might make right now the best time to buy ever. Chances are that home prices will continue to drop throughout the winter, home price trends always lag behind sales. But if inventory remains low and demand continues to increase, we will see stable if not rising prices by the latter half of 2012.

Prices Down, Sales Down for Cache County Real Estate

Cache County home sales during February weren't exactly great. I thought we were going to see an improvement in home sales during February, but it wasn't the case. Home sales were down 19% compared with February of last year and 8.7% compared with January.

Real estate inventory did see an increase since my last post, but it is still substantially down compared with February of last year. Right now Cache County has 711 MLS homes for sale. This is down by 5.5% compared with last month, and is even less than real estate inventory in March of 2009. Last years inventory may have been artificially high though as many sellers listed their homes early in homes of finding a buyer who was looking to take advantage of the home buyer tax credit. At February's sales pace, the 711 homes for sale gives Cache County 16.9 months of active inventory.



The good news for Logan UT Real Estate is that home sales look like they will improve this month. There are currently 102 home listings under contract. At this time last month, there were only 71 under contract properties. This is the highest monthly total since November.



Of the homes sold during February the median sold price was $158,000 and the average sales price was $167,773. This is down nearly 7 % from a year ago.

Less than 700 Homes for Sale in Cache Valley

Good news. Real Estate Inventory in Cache Valley Utah continues to drop. There are now just 699 MLS listings in Cache Valley.



This is the lowest Logan real estate inventory levels have been in more than a year. Traditionally, there are more listings at the end of February than the beginning. This year the trend has reversed as at the beginning of the mont there were 704 Logan homes for sale. This is a positive sign that the housing market might return to balanced levels near the end of the year.

The number of listed short sale homes in Cache County has declined one home, but with less homes for sale, the percentage of short sales actually rose. 8.58% of the active home listings are short sales including 29 properties in Logan, and 35 homes in the outlying Cache Valley communities.

Cache Valley Short Sales Up

The number of homes listed under "short sale" status in Cache county is likely at an all time high. There are currently 49 Short Sale Homes for sale in Cache County. This is the highest it's been since I started keeping track over a year ago.

Total real estate inventory is also at an all time home. Right now there are 873 MLS listings in Logan. This is a 123 more listings than we had at this time a year ago. With inventory high, and prices declining, we will likely see the number of short sale homes increase over the next few months.

What Price Range is The Hardest To Sell Right Now?

The air is starting to cool, and Winter in Cache Valley is coming. The winter months are typically the slowest months for home selling. But which homes will have the hardest time selling? Which type of Logan homes will have the easiest time selling?

For the most part, the more expensive homes will have the most competition if buyer behavior is similar to the way it has been in the past year. Homes priced above half a million have been nearly impossible to sell. There are currently 28 Cache Valley Homes for sale priced above $500,000, but only 5 in this range that sold in the last 365 days. Last year, homes priced between $400,000 and $500,000 had a better chance of selling than those priced between $300,000 and $400,000. Homes priced between $120,000 and $140,000 sold best.

One good metric for determining the health of the market is by determining months of inventory. The months of inventory are determined by comparing the actual home sales over the past year, with the number of homes in each price range that are actually for sale. So, if no new homes were listed for sale, it would take this many months for all of the existing properties to sell.

The graph below shows the months of inventory broken down by different price ranges. Logan Utah Real Estate has more than a years worth of inventory for homes priced above $200,000. Homes priced between $120,000 and $140,000 have just 5.21 months of inventory. I excluded the over $500,000 homes from the graph, because they currently have 67 months of active inventory.

If you really don't need to sell, then don't even try right now, especially if your home is worth more than $200,000.